Issue 014 · August 11th 2026
Kalshi fights Wisconsin, and soon every other state.
- ISSUE PRIMER -
Wisconsin has barred voting in an election you've bet on since 1849. The Elections Commission warned voters they could face a felony for betting on a race they also voted in, and its counsel concluded trades on Kalshi and Polymarket count as bets. Users have already wagered over $2 million on the August 11 governor's primary. Kalshi fired back, calling the law voter suppression. Defending democracy, dodging state law, or protecting its revenue? Let’s get into it.
→ We don’t need Prohibition 2.0
Banning a market never kills it. It drives it underground. Prohibition didn't stop drinking, it just made bootleggers rich. A ban won't stop people betting on elections. It'll push them to offshore books nobody regulates. Kalshi is a federally regulated exchange, and that's what you want: the betting happening in the open where a regulator can see it. This argument applies not just to Wisconsin, but every other state that is currently suing Kalshi in sanctimony.
← Democracy dies in the over/under
Bet money on a race and you now have two reasons to care who wins: who you think should govern, and who pays you. Those diverge, and your ballot starts tracking your book instead of your judgment. Worse, if your payout rides on turnout, you have a cash reason to move it: drive people out or keep them home for profit, which is just buying an outcome. And because thin markets move on little money while the press quotes the price as the real odds, a small bet can distort how everyone perceives the race.
- NYC Event to Learn More -
The Kalshi Crisis: Bets Over Baghdad
When: August 26, 6:30 PM at Fabrik Dumbo
What: Our NEXT debate. Companies that exploded in size and valuation by answering one question: can you bet on EVERYTHING? Turns out, you can! But should we? Is it OK for our citizenry to be betting on elections, assassinations, and war? Come through and here a Stevens professor and an ex-Citadel market maker square off - where you get to come up with the questions!
- Curated Articles -
How a Few Hundred Dollars… (Liam Vaughan, Bloomberg) Long, very informative article on the risks of election manipulation w/ Kalshi/Polymarket. Paywalled…
Kalshi and Polymarket are Economic Oracles (Aaron Brown, Bloomberg) - Mid-size article w/ analysis on when Polymarket/Kalshi are superior to polls. Paywalled…
Kalshi says its “voter suppression”… (Richard Hasen, Slate) - very sardonic AND paywalled article blasting Kalshi for its “voter suppression” take on WI.
Book Club at UNMUTED - this Sunday, Aug 16
Very few people have sympathy for politicians. These people make careers out of lying, taking positions formulated by big donors and special interests, and generally making an uncomfortable amounts of money in their post-public life careers. But have you ever run for office? The calls to donors every day, the struggle to build relevancy, the constant being told to f*ck off by potential voters. You’re giving up pieces of your soul to just have a chance. And imagine what’s that’s like when you’re running for President?
Turns out you don’t have to…because it’s detailed in the extraordinary “What It Takes”, a scintillating account of the 1988 Presidential election season by Richard Ben Cramer. This Sunday afternoon, we’ll be grabbing space at Chelsea’s Cafe Flor to talk about the book, the humanity of politicians, and the culpability of the press and the public in making the trials of political office pursuit inhumane.
If you’ve read it, or want to talk to people who have, join us! BUT if you can’t make it, subscribe here to stay updated on all of our upcoming events.
The 1988 President primaries were brutal.
Worth leaving the house for NEXT week in
NYC
Wed 8/19, 6:30 PM
Recreating Jurassic Park: De-extinction, Rewilding, and Restoration
Velociraptors (probably) +
Samuel L. Jackson (probably not) +
Jeff Goldblum (probably not)
A debate (!) on the ethics of extinct species recreation. Live dinosaurs are guaranteed to be there. Say less, king.
Produced by Hunters Point Park Conservancy
Hosted at Queens Landing Boathouse and Environmental Center
Thurs 8/20 5:45 PM
Civic Tech Summer Showcase
The People
Showcase of civic tech in the Beta Builders community. Good event for the NYC admin wonks.
Produced by BetaNYC
Hosted at Brooklyn Heights Library
Thur, 8/20, 7 PM
The Affordability Series (Housing)
David Brand (WNYC Radio) +
Brigid Bergin (WNYC Radio) +
Janae Pierre (WNYC Radio)
An ongoing series hosted by WNYC. Plays nicely with UNMUTED’s upcoming on rent freezes and homelessness. Live podcast format.
Produced by New York Public Radio
Hosted at HANAC Harmony JVL Older Adult Center
That’s all for now. See you Space Cowboy…